The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI), issued by Dodge Construction Network, increased in May to 179 – up 2.7 percent from a revised April reading of 174.3.
The momentum index is a monthly measure of the value of nonresidential building projects going into planning, shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year.
Over the month, commercial planning progressed 5.5 percent and institutional planning slowed by 3.4 percent.
“Owners and developers are gaining confidence in 2025 market conditions, alongside more stable and predictable interest rates – spurring stronger commercial activity over the month,” says Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network. “Conversely, after last year’s growth, institutional planning is decelerating as high material costs, labor shortages and elevated interest rates seep into planning decisions. The overall DMI remains 40 percent higher than May 2019 levels, indicating a steady pipeline of construction projects that will be ready to break ground through mid-2025.”
Dodge says data center planning supported growth on the commercial side of the index in May, alongside a steady acceleration in retail planning over the last six months. Marginal increases in project activity were also seen in hotel and warehouse planning.
For the third consecutive month, health care and education planning activity slowed, constraining total institutional planning momentum. Public project planning activity also slackened in May, while the value of amusement planning projects has been picking up of late.
In May, the DMI was 7 percent lower than year-ago levels, following an abnormally strong May 2023. The commercial segment was up 8 percent from year-ago levels, while the institutional segment was down 32 percent over the same period.
A total of 19 projects valued at $100 million or more entered planning throughout the month of May.
The largest commercial project included the $500 million renovation of the former Mirage Hotel to a Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Las Vegas. The next two largest commercial projects to enter planning were the $495 million Prime Data Center in Fort Worth, Texas, and the $481 million Prime Data Center in Garland, Texas.
The largest institutional projects to enter planning were the $377 million renovation project to Neyland Stadium at the University of Tennessee and the $350 million Woodland Research & Technology Office in Woodland, California.
