Five trends that defined aggregate demand in 2025

How would you characterize the year that was in the aggregate industry?

While a Texas producer’s experience likely differs from one in California, Florida or North Carolina, many underlying variables look similar across the U.S. Here’s a look at five storylines that shaped aggregate demand in 2025.

What’s trending

1. Aggregate shipments are down but potentially turning a corner.

Aggregate production volumes, as tracked by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) were down six straight quarters as of the second quarter this year. They were down 4.4 percent across April, May and June, with some producers publicly reporting that inclement weather was a deterring factor.

As P&Q went to press, USGS had not yet published its third-quarter aggregate production data. The trend noted across the industry’s third-quarter earnings reports, however, is that volumes are once again trending in the right direction.

Among the public producers to offer details on aggregate shipments in the third quarter were Vulcan Materials, Martin Marietta, Amrize and Arcosa – with all four reporting their volumes were up. Vulcan’s shipments increased 12 percent year over year to 64.7 million tons while Martin Marietta’s rose 8 percent to 57.9 million tons.

Arcosa had the most significant increase in the third quarter at 18 percent, while Amrize noted a 3.3 percent increase to 40.2 million tons.

2. Producers are focusing on value over volume.

As aggregate volumes dipped from early 2024 to mid-2025, the narrative among producers shifted from one emphasizing volume growth to one promoting “value over volume.”

The value-over-volume approach that’s taken hold is two-fold. For producers, it’s not only about elevating the price of their materials in the market but deploying a stricter cost management strategy. The method steered many producers through a stretch of lower volumes and to record earnings.

“We continue to execute well and remain focused on delivering another year of margin expansion and attractive growth in aggregates unit profitability,” says Tom Hill, chairman and CEO of Vulcan Materials. “Aggregates shipments through the third quarter have increased 3 percent, and we expect full-year shipments to reflect similar year-over-year growth.”

3. Federal highway funding is approaching a critical moment.

Passage of the Infrastructure Investment & Jobs Act (IIJA) in November 2021 created sustained demand for aggregates through major road, bridge and highway projects. IIJA funding will continue to support projects in the new year, but Congress will have to address the highway bill before it expires Sept. 30, 2026.

Industry leaders broached the subject on Capitol Hill back in September during the National Stone, Sand & Gravel Association’s (NSSGA) Legislative & Policy Forum. NSSGA and like organizations will undoubtedly intensify their messaging on infrastructure funding as that September 2026 deadline nears.

Still, is there appetite in Washington for another major spending bill? The One Big Beautiful Bill Act was President Trump’s signature legislation this year. And with the midterm elections looming next November, the chances of passing another multiyear bill providing sustained highway funding are, at the very least, somewhat questionable.

4. The housing slowdown continues.

While infrastructure projects fueled producers throughout 2025, they’re ready for the housing market to take off again.

Will residential construction finally budge in 2026? The answer may depend on location, with areas experiencing population growth more likely to see added activity.

The Federal Reserve did finally drop the federal funds rate for the first time this year in September. That decrease followed a series of 2024 cuts totaling 100 basis points, but producers expressed lukewarm sentiment about residential construction as this year wore on.

According to Dodge Construction Network, residential construction starts were down 4.2 percent on a year-to-date basis through September. Across 2024, residential starts were up 7 percent.

In recent weeks, the president touted 50-year mortgages as a solution to provide those currently on the sideline of homeownership a path into the housing market. Such an opening would surely give residential construction a boost it hasn’t experienced in years, but whether the 50-year mortgage can overcome the legal and regulatory reform required in 2026 – or beyond – is to be determined.

5. Mega projects are spiking demand in nonresidential.

Although residential construction leaves something to be desired, producers are supplementing aggregate demand related to infrastructure with expanded opportunities in nonresidential construction.

Data centers continue to boom, accounting for some of the largest projects in nonresidential. In September, for instance, Dodge reported that two of the three largest nonresidential projects to break ground were data centers with values exceeding $1 billion.

In other words, data centers in 2025 are what warehouse were just a few years ago.

“Nonresidential construction continues to be led by attractive and growing data center demand and, more recently, warehouse construction appears to have reached a cyclical bottom,” says Ward Nye, chair and CEO of Martin Marietta, back in April.