The American Cement Association (ACA), formerly the Portland Cement Association (PCA), projects U.S. cement consumption to decline 1.6 percent this year.
The prediction was included in the ACA market intelligence team’s spring forecast, which was released last week at the 67th IEEE-IAS/PCA Cement Conference in Birmingham, Alabama.
“‘Uncertainty’ is a key consideration for the construction industry’s outlook in the near term,” says Trevor Storck, regional economist at ACA. “The cement industry’s baseline assumes continued improvement in trade negotiations, like the progress seen this week with China. This will provide relief to markets and help restore some investor confidence, supporting a rebound in economic activity.”
“But it’s important to note that elevated interest rates that hindered construction activity last year are still in place and continue to play a role in this year’s projections,” Storck adds.
ACA’s baseline calls for the economy to narrowly avoid a recession this year before stronger growth returns in 2026 and 2027. Labor markets are expected to continue cooling in 2025 without a significant rise in unemployment, the association adds.
The key headwind facing housing remains affordability, according to ACA. Elevated mortgage rates and home prices will take time to rebalance, holding back growth in near-term homebuilding.
Outside of strong growth in data center construction, ACA expects commercial markets to continue to ease this year. The association says the high inflationary environment, meanwhile, has plagued highway and street construction.
Still, ACA says as headwinds fade, modest cement consumption growth will return in 2026 before more robust growth surfaces in 2027.
Related: Portland Cement Association rebrands as American Cement Association
